♠ Card Games Encyclopedia
Reference Guide

Win Rate in Poker Explained: The Complete Guide to Measuring Your Results

Applies to: All Poker Variants • Difficulty: Essential Knowledge • Cash Games & Tournaments

Understanding Win Rate: Poker's Most Important Metric

Win rate is the fundamental measure of a poker player's long-term profitability. Whether you're a recreational player tracking your hobby or a professional evaluating your career, understanding win rate is essential for setting realistic expectations, managing your bankroll, and measuring improvement over time.

Unlike casino games with fixed house edges, poker is a skill game where your results depend on how well you play relative to your opponents. Your win rate quantifies this edge in a standardized way that allows comparison across different stakes, formats, and time periods. According to research from the UNLV International Gaming Institute, poker is classified as a game where skilled players can maintain long-term positive expected value, distinguishing it from pure gambling activities.

This guide explains how win rate is measured, what constitutes realistic expectations at different levels, the critical role of variance, and how to use win rate data to improve your game.

What is Win Rate in Poker?

Win rate measures your average profit per unit of play over time. In poker, this is typically expressed in one of several ways depending on the format:

bb/100 (Big Blinds per 100 Hands)

The gold standard for measuring cash game win rates. bb/100 expresses your profit as a multiple of the big blind, normalized per 100 hands played. This metric allows meaningful comparison across stakes because it accounts for the game size.

Example: At $1/$2 No-Limit Hold'em, if you profit $400 over 2,000 hands:

Win Rate = ($400 / $2 big blind) / (2,000 hands / 100) = 200bb / 20 = 10 bb/100

ptbb/100 (PokerTracker Big Blinds)

An older convention used by early tracking software where one "big blind" equals half the big blind (i.e., one small blind at a standard table). A 5 bb/100 rate equals 10 ptbb/100. Modern software has largely standardized on bb/100, but you may encounter ptbb/100 in older forum discussions or databases.

Hourly Rate ($/hour)

Hourly rate converts bb/100 into actual dollar amounts based on stakes and hands per hour. This metric is most useful for calculating expected income and comparing poker to other uses of your time.

Hourly Rate Formula:

Hourly Rate = (bb/100 × Hands per Hour × Big Blind Size) / 100

Example: 5 bb/100 at $2/$5, playing 30 hands/hour live:

(5 × 30 × $5) / 100 = $7.50/hour

Tournament ROI (Return on Investment)

For tournaments, win rate is measured as ROI: (Total Cashes - Total Buy-ins) / Total Buy-ins × 100%. A 20% ROI means for every $100 in buy-ins, you average $120 in returns. Tournament win rates require even larger sample sizes than cash games due to higher variance from top-heavy payout structures.

What is a Good Win Rate?

Win rate expectations vary dramatically based on game type, stakes, and player pool. The PokerNews and Two Plus Two forums have documented extensive discussions on realistic win rate benchmarks based on decades of player data.

Online Cash Games

Stakes Elite Win Rate Strong Win Rate Solid Win Rate
Microstakes ($0.01/$0.02 - $0.05/$0.10) 15+ bb/100 8-15 bb/100 4-8 bb/100
Low Stakes ($0.10/$0.25 - $0.25/$0.50) 8-12 bb/100 5-8 bb/100 2-5 bb/100
Mid Stakes ($0.50/$1 - $2/$4) 5-8 bb/100 3-5 bb/100 1-3 bb/100
High Stakes ($5/$10+) 4-6 bb/100 2-4 bb/100 1-2 bb/100

Live Cash Games

Live poker typically offers higher win rates due to:

  • Softer competition (more recreational players)
  • Less access to study materials and tracking software
  • Social/entertainment focus over pure profit-seeking
  • Physical tells and live reads adding exploitative edge

Strong live players at $1/$2 or $2/$5 often achieve 10-20 bb/100 (approximately $10-$40/hour at $1/$2). However, the slower pace (25-35 hands/hour vs. 60-100+ online) means hourly rates may be comparable despite higher bb/100 figures.

Tournament ROI Benchmarks

Tournament win rates are harder to benchmark due to format diversity and extreme variance:

  • Recreational players: -30% to breakeven ROI
  • Competent players: 0-15% ROI
  • Strong players: 15-30% ROI
  • Elite professionals: 30-100%+ ROI (smaller field MTTs)

Large-field tournaments with thousands of entrants compress ROI significantly compared to single-table SNGs or smaller MTTs, regardless of skill level.

Understanding Variance: Why Short-Term Results Are Misleading

One of poker's most misunderstood concepts is variance - the mathematical certainty that results will fluctuate wildly in the short term, even for skilled players. The Carnegie Mellon University poker research team has extensively studied how variance affects poker outcomes and decision quality evaluation.

Standard Deviation in Poker

Variance is quantified through standard deviation, typically expressed in bb/100. Most cash game players have standard deviations between 60-120 bb/100 depending on playing style:

  • Tight-passive players: ~60-80 bb/100 standard deviation
  • TAG (Tight-Aggressive): ~80-100 bb/100 standard deviation
  • LAG (Loose-Aggressive): ~100-120+ bb/100 standard deviation

What This Means in Practice

With a 5 bb/100 win rate and 100 bb/100 standard deviation, over 10,000 hands:

  • Expected profit: 500 bb
  • 68% chance results fall within: -500 bb to +1,500 bb
  • 95% chance results fall within: -1,500 bb to +2,500 bb

This means a legitimate 5 bb/100 winner could easily show a 1,000 bb loss over 10,000 hands through variance alone - that's 10 buy-ins at 100bb stacks. Downswings of 20-50 buy-ins occur regularly even for winning players.

Sample Size Requirements

To be statistically confident in your win rate, you need significant volume:

Sample Size Confidence in Results Margin of Error (approx.)
10,000 hands Very low ±10 bb/100
30,000 hands Low ±5 bb/100
100,000 hands Moderate ±2-3 bb/100
500,000 hands High ±1 bb/100

This is why poker professionals emphasize process over results. A winning decision can lose money in a specific hand, and a losing decision can win - only over massive samples do results converge toward expected values.

Factors That Affect Your Win Rate

Your win rate isn't fixed - it's influenced by numerous controllable and uncontrollable factors. Understanding these helps you maximize your edge.

Game Selection

Perhaps the single most important factor affecting win rate. As covered in our table selection guide, choosing the right games dramatically impacts profitability:

  • Tables with recreational players offer higher win rates
  • Time of day matters (weekends and evenings are typically softer)
  • Game format selection (PLO often softer than NLHE at comparable stakes)
  • Avoiding tough regulars preserves your edge

Rake Impact

As explained in our poker rake guide, rake directly reduces your effective win rate. At microstakes, rake can consume 5-15 bb/100 from the ecosystem. A player who would achieve 8 bb/100 in a raked game might achieve 12 bb/100 in a rakeless game. According to the American Gaming Association, understanding rake structures is essential for evaluating game profitability.

Position

Your table position significantly affects win rate by position. Professional players typically show:

  • Button (BTN): Most profitable position, +15 to +30 bb/100
  • Cutoff (CO): Second most profitable, +5 to +15 bb/100
  • Middle Position: Roughly breakeven, -2 to +5 bb/100
  • Early Position: Often slightly negative, -5 to +2 bb/100
  • Blinds (SB/BB): Typically negative, -15 to -30 bb/100

Mental State and Tilt

As discussed in our mental game guide, emotional control directly impacts win rate. Studies suggest tilt and suboptimal mental states can cost players 2-5 bb/100 or more when playing through negative emotions.

Study and Improvement

Continuous learning through hand review, coaching, training sites, and study groups is how players increase their win rates over time. Resources like the Upswing Poker training platform provide structured curricula for systematic improvement.

Number of Tables (Online)

Multi-tabling increases hourly rate but typically decreases bb/100 due to reduced focus per table. Optimal table count balances these factors based on individual capacity:

  • 1-2 tables: Maximum bb/100, lower hourly rate
  • 4-6 tables: Balanced approach for most players
  • 8-12+ tables: Maximum hourly rate, compressed bb/100

How to Track and Analyze Your Win Rate

Accurate tracking is essential for understanding your true win rate and identifying leaks. Use our session tracker to record and analyze your results.

Online Tracking Software

For online play, tracking software like PokerTracker or Hold'em Manager automatically records every hand, calculating win rates across thousands of data points including:

  • Overall win rate by stake and game type
  • Win rate by position
  • Win rate vs. specific player types
  • Win rate in specific situations (3-bet pots, as aggressor, etc.)

Live Play Tracking

Live players must track manually. Record for each session:

  • Date, time, and location
  • Game and stakes
  • Hours played
  • Buy-in amounts and cash-out total
  • Estimated hands played (hours × ~30 hands/hour)
  • Notes on game quality and your mental state

Interpreting Your Data

When analyzing win rate data, consider:

  • Sample size: Is your sample large enough to be meaningful?
  • Confidence intervals: Calculate the range your true win rate likely falls within
  • Trend analysis: Is your win rate improving, declining, or stable over time?
  • Filtered analysis: Break down results by stakes, position, and situation to find leaks

Common Win Rate Misconceptions

Misconception: I can determine my skill from a few sessions

Short-term results tell you almost nothing about skill. A 10-session sample could show a losing player up 50 buy-ins or a winning player down 30 buy-ins through normal variance. Only massive samples reveal true ability.

Misconception: My win rate should be consistent

Win rate changes over time as you improve (or regress), as opponent pools evolve, as games get tougher, and as you move between stakes. The same player can have very different win rates at different points in their career or even different months.

Misconception: Higher win rate always means better player

A 15 bb/100 winner at $0.05/$0.10 is not necessarily better than a 3 bb/100 winner at $5/$10. Higher stakes attract stronger competition, compressing achievable win rates. The best players in the world often have lower bb/100 than recreational winners at microstakes because they face elite opposition.

Misconception: Breakeven means you're not a winner

A breakeven or small winning player in a tough game might crush a softer game. Win rate is context-dependent. Additionally, small edges compound - a 1 bb/100 winner playing 100,000 hands yearly at $5/$10 earns $50,000 annually before any rakeback or bonuses.

How to Improve Your Win Rate

1. Plug Major Leaks First

Use tracking software to identify your biggest losing situations. Common leaks include:

  • Playing too many hands from early position
  • Calling too much instead of raising or folding
  • Over-valuing top pair in big pots
  • Failing to value bet thin enough on rivers

2. Study Systematically

Allocate time to study proportional to your play time. Review hands, watch training content, discuss spots with peers, and use solver tools to understand GTO frequencies. Our GTO strategy guide provides foundational theory.

3. Optimize Game Selection

Your win rate against tough regulars approaches zero. Your win rate against recreational players can be 20+ bb/100. Prioritize finding and playing against weaker opponents when possible.

4. Manage Tilt and Mental Game

Quitting when tilted and only playing in optimal mental states can add several bb/100 to your long-term results. Consider your mental game as a skill to develop, not just an afterthought.

5. Move Stakes Appropriately

Don't move up stakes until you've proven yourself a consistent winner at your current level. Moving up too fast often results in playing in games where you're break-even or a loser, stunting both bankroll and skill development.

Frequently Asked Questions

Can I make a living playing poker with a 5 bb/100 win rate?

It depends on stakes, volume, and cost of living. At $2/$5 live, 5 bb/100 with 1,000 hours yearly (~30,000 hands) equals approximately $15,000 before variance swings. Most professional players need either higher win rates, higher stakes, more volume, or additional income streams (coaching, staking, streaming) to sustain a living.

Is it normal to have a losing month even with a positive win rate?

Absolutely normal. Even strong winners with 5-10 bb/100 win rates regularly have losing months. With typical variance, a winning player might have 2-4 losing months per year despite being solidly profitable overall. This is mathematically expected and not a cause for concern if your sample size is sufficient.

How does Pot Limit Omaha win rate compare to No Limit Hold'em?

PLO typically offers higher achievable win rates (8-15+ bb/100 is common for strong players) but also has significantly higher variance due to closer equities and bigger pots. PLO player pools tend to be less studied and more recreational at comparable stakes to NLHE.

Should I track all-in equity-adjusted win rate or actual results?

Both have value. "All-in EV" adjusts results based on equity when all-in, reducing short-term variance noise. However, actual results are what pay your bills. Most players track both - EV-adjusted for evaluating play quality, actual results for bankroll management.

Why do games get tougher over time?

The "poker ecosystem" continuously evolves. Recreational players eventually learn or leave, strategy content becomes widely available, solver tools democratize GTO knowledge, and winning players continually level up. This gradual toughening means win rates that were achievable 5-10 years ago may be unrealistic today at the same stakes.

Key Takeaways

  • bb/100 is the standard metric for measuring cash game win rate, expressing profit in big blinds per 100 hands
  • Realistic win rates range from 2-10 bb/100 online depending on stakes, with higher rates possible in live games
  • Variance is massive - you need 100,000+ hands to have confidence in your true win rate
  • Game selection has the single largest impact on achievable win rate
  • Continuous improvement through study and leak identification is how players increase their edge over time
  • Process over results - focus on making good decisions rather than short-term outcomes

Understanding win rate provides the foundation for treating poker as a long-term endeavor rather than a series of disconnected sessions. By tracking your results, understanding variance, and continuously working to improve, you can develop realistic expectations and a sustainable approach to the game.

Related Resources