Poker Session Tracker & Win Rate Calculator
Understanding your true win rate in poker requires tracking results over significant sample sizes. This free session tracker and win rate calculator helps you measure your performance, understand statistical confidence, and separate skill from short-term variance. Whether you play Texas Hold'em cash games or tournaments, knowing your actual win rate is essential for honest self-assessment and bankroll management.
Calculate Your Win Rate
Your sample size provides moderate confidence in your win rate estimate.
Track individual sessions to build a comprehensive view of your results over time.
Calculate how many hands you need to reach statistical significance at your current win rate.
Understanding Win Rate in Poker
Win rate measures your profitability over time, typically expressed as big blinds won per 100 hands (bb/100) for cash games or as a percentage return on investment (ROI) for tournaments. According to the Two Plus Two poker fundamentals, accurately measuring your win rate is essential for understanding whether you're actually a winning player or simply experiencing positive variance.
The challenge with poker win rates is that variance obscures true skill over small samples. A losing player can win significantly over 10,000 hands due to luck, while a strong winning player can experience devastating downswings. This reality makes proper session tracking and statistical analysis crucial for any serious player.
Why Sample Size Matters
Poker mathematicians have long studied the relationship between sample size and statistical confidence. Research discussed in forums like Two Plus Two's Poker Theory section suggests that meaningful conclusions about your skill level require enormous sample sizes - often 50,000 to 100,000 hands or more.
Standard deviation in poker is remarkably high. A typical cash game player experiences a standard deviation of 60-80 bb/100, meaning results swing wildly around their true win rate. This calculator uses statistical formulas to help you understand the uncertainty in your current results and project how your confidence will improve as you accumulate more hands.
The 95% Confidence Interval
The confidence interval shows the range where your true win rate likely falls. With a 95% confidence interval of -2 to +12 bb/100, you can be 95% confident your actual long-term win rate is somewhere in that range. Wider intervals indicate less certainty; narrower intervals indicate more reliable estimates.
This calculator computes confidence intervals using the standard error formula, which depends on your sample size and the assumed standard deviation. Larger samples produce narrower intervals, eventually converging toward your true skill level.
Typical Win Rates by Game Type
Win rates vary dramatically based on game format, stakes, and player pool. The Card Player strategy section provides extensive analysis of what constitutes winning performance across different formats.
| Game Type | Metric | Solid Winner | Strong Winner | Elite |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Online Cash (Low Stakes) | bb/100 | 2-4 | 5-8 | 10+ |
| Online Cash (Mid Stakes) | bb/100 | 1-3 | 3-5 | 6+ |
| Live Cash Games | bb/hr | 5-10 | 10-20 | 25+ |
| Online MTT | ROI % | 5-15% | 15-30% | 30%+ |
| Live MTT | ROI % | 10-30% | 30-50% | 50%+ |
These benchmarks reflect general expectations, but individual results depend on game selection, table composition, and playing style. A player crushing soft home games might struggle at tough online tables despite identical technical skill. The position you play from and your betting structure expertise also significantly impact achievable win rates.
Tracking Sessions Effectively
Consistent session tracking requires discipline but provides invaluable data for self-improvement. Professional players and serious amateurs typically record:
- Profit/Loss: Net result in dollars or the currency played
- Hands Played: For online poker, tracking software provides exact counts; for live games, estimate based on hands per hour
- Hours Played: Essential for calculating hourly rate and comparing to opportunity cost
- Stakes: Big blind size to normalize results across different games
- Game Type: Cash, tournament, SNG, and specific variant (Hold'em, Omaha, etc.)
- Notes: Table conditions, mental state, significant hands, and observations
Dedicated tracking software like PokerTracker and Hold'em Manager automates this process for online play, providing detailed statistics beyond simple win rate. For live players, apps and spreadsheets serve the same purpose, though hand counts must be estimated (typically 25-35 hands per hour in live games versus 60-100+ online).
Interpreting Your Results
When analyzing your tracked results, consider these principles:
Short-Term Results Are Unreliable
A 10 bb/100 win rate over 5,000 hands could easily be a losing player running hot. Conversely, a -5 bb/100 rate over the same sample might be a strong winner experiencing a downswing. Reserve judgment until you've accumulated substantial volume. Use the Variance Simulator to visualize how widely your results can swing even with a known true win rate.
Compare Like With Like
Don't mix results from different stakes, games, or formats when calculating your win rate. Your 6-max online win rate at $0.50/$1 tells you nothing about your live $2/$5 full-ring performance. Segment your data appropriately.
Focus on Process Over Results
While tracking results is important, study and improvement matter more than any single session outcome. Use tracking data to identify leaks - are you losing money from the blinds? In 3-bet pots? Against certain opponent types? Tools like the Expected Value Calculator and Hand Range Visualizer help analyze specific situations.
Common Win Rate Mistakes
Players often misinterpret their results due to these common errors:
- Drawing conclusions too early: Declaring yourself a "5 bb/100 winner" after 20,000 hands ignores massive uncertainty in that estimate
- Ignoring rake: Especially at lower stakes, rake significantly impacts net win rate. A 3 bb/100 winner before rake might be breakeven after rake
- Selective memory: Remembering big wins while downplaying losses distorts perceived performance
- Mixing formats: Combining tournament and cash results, or different stake levels, produces meaningless aggregate statistics
- Overlooking lifestyle costs: Travel, tips, drinks, and time commitment factor into true hourly rate
Using Results for Bankroll Management
Your win rate directly influences proper bankroll requirements. Higher win rates allow playing with fewer buy-ins because you'll recover from downswings faster. Conversely, marginal winners need larger bankrolls to survive variance.
The relationship between win rate, standard deviation, and risk of ruin is mathematically precise. A 5 bb/100 winner with 75 bb/100 standard deviation faces very different risk than a 2 bb/100 winner with the same variance. Use your tracked statistics to make informed decisions about stake selection and bankroll allocation.
Frequently Asked Questions
How many hands do I need to know my true win rate?
Most poker statisticians agree you need at least 100,000 hands to have a reasonably accurate estimate of your win rate. Even then, there's significant uncertainty. At 50,000 hands, your measured win rate could be off by 2-3 bb/100 from your true rate. For tournaments, sample sizes need to be even larger due to higher variance.
What is a good win rate in poker?
In online cash games, winning players typically achieve 2-10 bb/100 depending on stakes and game type. In live games, 10-20 bb/hour is considered strong. The best players in softer games may see higher rates, while tough games compress win rates significantly. Any positive long-term win rate indicates skill.
Why does my win rate fluctuate so much?
Poker has high variance due to the random distribution of cards. Even with a solid 5 bb/100 win rate, you can experience 20+ buy-in downswings. Small sample sizes magnify this effect, which is why tracking thousands of hands is essential before drawing conclusions about your skill level.
Should I track live and online results separately?
Absolutely. Live and online poker are different games with different player pools, hand volumes, and strategic considerations. Your win rate at one format tells you little about the other. Track them separately to understand your performance in each environment.
How do I estimate hands per hour for live poker?
Live casino poker typically deals 25-35 hands per hour at a full table (9-10 players). Short-handed games deal faster - perhaps 35-45 hands per hour with 6 players. Home games vary widely based on dealer skill and table conversation. Use 30 hands/hour as a reasonable default for full-ring live games.
Related Tools and Resources
Build a complete understanding of your poker performance using these complementary tools:
- Variance Simulator - Visualize possible outcomes based on your win rate and standard deviation
- Bankroll Calculator - Determine proper bankroll requirements based on your risk tolerance
- Expected Value Calculator - Analyze the profitability of specific decisions
- ICM Calculator - Understand tournament equity for MTT players
- Pot Odds Calculator - Make mathematically correct calling decisions
- Texas Hold'em Guide - Master the fundamentals of the most popular poker variant
- Hand Rankings - Complete reference for hand strength across variants
Responsible Gaming Reminder
This session tracker is designed for educational purposes to help you understand poker mathematics and track your recreational play. Poker combines skill with variance, and even mathematically correct play produces losses in the short term. The National Council on Problem Gambling provides resources for anyone concerned about their gambling habits. Never risk money you cannot afford to lose, and remember that tracking results should enhance enjoyment of the game, not create stress about outcomes.