Poker Profit Target Calculator
Setting realistic profit targets is crucial for sustainable poker success. This calculator helps you establish achievable session goals, determine how much time you need to reach income targets, and set appropriate stop-loss limits to protect your bankroll. By understanding the relationship between win rate, variance, and time, you can create a sustainable approach to poker that balances ambition with mathematical reality.
💰 Profit Target Calculator
Your expected win rate in big blinds per 100 hands
The big blind amount at your stakes
How long you plan to play
Avg hands/hour (25-35 live, 60-100 online)
Quick Presets:
Variance Range for Session
📊 Session Recommendation
Based on your inputs, here's what you should expect...
Your desired monthly poker earnings
Your expected win rate
The big blind at your stakes
Average hands per hour
Income Goal Presets:
| Timeframe | Hours Needed | Sessions (4hr) | Expected Profit |
|---|
📈 Income Analysis
Based on your inputs...
Standard buy-in for your game (typically 100 BB)
Amount you bring to a session
Your entire poker bankroll
How much loss you're comfortable with
Note: Stop-loss limits are guidelines to protect your bankroll and mental game. If you're playing your A-game, some players continue until time limits are reached. If you're tilted or playing poorly, stop immediately regardless of results.
| Scenario | Stop-Loss | Risk Level | Recovery Sessions |
|---|
🛡️ Bankroll Protection
Based on your inputs...
Understanding Profit Targets in Poker
Unlike traditional employment where income is predictable, poker earnings fluctuate significantly due to variance. This makes goal-setting in poker fundamentally different from other professions. Successful players focus on process goals (hands played, decisions made) alongside outcome goals (profit targets), understanding that short-term results often don't reflect true skill level.
According to research published in the Journal of Economic Psychology, poker players who set volume-based goals (hands or hours played) alongside profit targets tend to make better decisions than those focused solely on monetary outcomes. This approach reduces results-oriented thinking and the tilt that often follows variance-induced losses.
Volume Goals
Set targets for hands or hours played rather than just profit. This keeps you focused on putting in quality volume rather than chasing short-term results. For online players, 30,000-50,000 hands monthly is a common goal; live players might target 100+ hours.
Expected Value Focus
Track your decisions, not just results. Review hands where you made correct plays regardless of outcome. Over time, good decisions lead to positive results, but any single session can deviate wildly from expected value.
Bankroll Preservation
Your bankroll is your poker business capital. Stop-loss limits protect this capital during inevitable downswings. Most professionals recommend having 20-30 buy-ins for your stakes to weather variance comfortably.
Realistic Expectations
Even excellent players experience losing months. A solid 5 BB/100 winner can realistically lose money over 50,000 hands. Understanding this prevents discouragement during mathematically normal downswings.
Win Rate Reference Guide
Your win rate determines everything about your profit potential. The Two Plus Two poker community has extensively documented typical win rates across different game types and stakes. Here's what the data suggests:
| Game Type | Solid Winner | Strong Winner | Elite Player |
|---|---|---|---|
| Online 6-max Cash | 2-4 BB/100 | 4-7 BB/100 | 7-10+ BB/100 |
| Online Full Ring | 1.5-3 BB/100 | 3-5 BB/100 | 5-8+ BB/100 |
| Live $1/$2 or $1/$3 | 5-10 BB/hr | 10-15 BB/hr | 15-25+ BB/hr |
| Live $2/$5 | 3-6 BB/hr | 6-10 BB/hr | 10-15+ BB/hr |
| Online MTTs | 10-20% ROI | 20-50% ROI | 50-100%+ ROI |
Win rates typically decrease as you move up in stakes because the player pool becomes more skilled. A 10 BB/100 winner at micro stakes might only win 3-4 BB/100 at mid stakes. This calculator helps you understand how stake changes affect your hourly rate and time requirements.
The Mathematics of Stop-Loss Limits
Stop-loss limits serve two purposes: protecting your bankroll and protecting your mental game. Research from the National Center for Biotechnology Information (NCBI) shows that decision-making quality deteriorates after significant losses due to emotional factors. A proper stop-loss helps you quit before making costly tilt-driven mistakes.
The Standard Stop-Loss Formula: Most professionals recommend a stop-loss of 2-3 buy-ins per session. For a $1/$2 game with $200 buy-ins, this means stopping after losing $400-$600. This limits single-session damage to 10-15% of a 20 buy-in bankroll while giving you enough room to recover from normal variance.
When to Use Stop-Losses vs. Time Limits
Some winning players argue against hard stop-losses, preferring time-based limits instead. The reasoning: if you're playing well in a profitable game, leaving after losing 3 buy-ins might cost you positive expected value. However, this approach requires honest self-assessment about whether you're truly playing your best poker.
A hybrid approach works well for many players: set a hard stop-loss for catastrophic sessions (4+ buy-ins), a soft stop-loss that triggers a mandatory break and self-assessment (2-3 buy-ins), and time limits to ensure you don't play when fatigued. Use the mental game principles to evaluate whether continuing makes sense.
Common Goal-Setting Mistakes
| Mistake | Problem | Better Approach |
|---|---|---|
| Daily profit targets | Variance makes daily goals unrealistic; leads to forcing play or stopping early when ahead | Weekly or monthly targets; daily volume goals |
| No stop-loss | Catastrophic sessions can damage bankroll and mental game for weeks | Set clear limits before sitting down; stick to them |
| Stopping when winning | "Quitting winner" ignores EV; may leave good game too early | Play based on game quality and your energy level, not results |
| Ignoring variance | Expecting linear results leads to frustration and tilt | Use variance simulator to understand realistic outcome ranges |
| Overestimating win rate | Planning based on unrealistic expectations sets you up for failure | Track results over large sample; use session tracker |
Building a Sustainable Poker Schedule
Professional poker requires treating the game like a business. The American Gaming Association reports that commercial gaming revenue has grown consistently, indicating healthy poker ecosystems, but individual success depends on sustainable practices rather than marathon sessions.
Session Length
Most players perform best in 4-6 hour sessions. Beyond this, focus and decision quality typically decline. Schedule regular breaks even within sessions to maintain sharpness.
Weekly Volume
Full-time professionals often play 30-50 hours weekly. Part-time players should aim for consistent volume (e.g., 10-15 hours) rather than sporadic marathon sessions.
Game Selection
Your effective hourly rate depends heavily on game quality. Spending time finding good games can double your win rate compared to playing in tough lineups. Review position advantages and table dynamics.
Study Time
Allocate 20-30% of poker time to study. Review hands, use training tools like the preflop trainer, and analyze your session data. Continuous improvement maintains or increases your win rate.
Related Tools & Resources
Effective profit planning requires multiple tools working together. Combine this calculator with these resources for comprehensive poker planning:
- Bankroll Calculator - Determine proper bankroll for your stakes and calculate risk of ruin
- Variance Simulator - Visualize potential outcomes and understand realistic result ranges
- Session Tracker - Track actual results and calculate confidence intervals for your win rate
- Expected Value Calculator - Analyze individual decisions for profitability
- Mental Game Guide - Develop the psychological skills for consistent performance
- Tournament Strategy - Adjust approach for MTT and SNG formats with different variance profiles
Responsible Gaming Reminder
While this calculator helps with poker planning, remember that gambling involves risk. Never play with money you can't afford to lose, and be aware of problem gambling resources if poker stops being enjoyable or affects other areas of your life. Setting limits—both for losses and time spent playing—is a sign of mature, sustainable poker play.
Frequently Asked Questions
How do I set realistic poker session goals?
Realistic session goals should be based on your historical win rate, the stakes you play, variance, and session length. A good target is 2-4 big blinds per hour for solid players, but goals should account for variance by using a range rather than a fixed number. Stop-loss limits should typically be 2-3 buy-ins to protect your bankroll on bad days.
What is a good stop-loss limit for poker?
A common stop-loss recommendation is 2-3 buy-ins for cash games. This protects your bankroll while giving you enough room to recover from normal variance. Some professionals use time-based stops (after X hours regardless of results) rather than purely monetary stops to avoid playing while tilted.
How many hours do I need to play poker to make a certain amount?
The hours needed depend on your win rate (in BB/100 or $/hour), the stakes you play, and your hands per hour. For example, a 5 BB/100 winner playing $1/$2 (approximately $10/hour) would need 100 hours to make $1,000. However, variance means actual results will deviate from expected value over shorter timeframes.
Should I set daily or weekly profit targets in poker?
Weekly or monthly targets are generally better than daily targets because they account for variance. Daily results are highly variable even for winning players. Setting monthly volume goals (hours or hands played) alongside result goals helps maintain focus on the process rather than short-term outcomes.