Set Mining in Poker
The Complete Guide to Playing Pocket Pairs for Sets
What Is Set Mining?
Set mining is one of the most profitable plays in poker when executed correctly. The concept is simple: you call a pre-flop raise with a pocket pair—typically small to medium pairs like 22 through 99—hoping to flop three-of-a-kind (a "set"). When you hit, you have a disguised monster that can win a massive pot. When you miss, you fold to aggression and minimize losses.
The beauty of set mining lies in its simplicity and the hidden strength of sets. Unlike overpairs or top pair, sets rarely look dangerous on the board. When you hold 55 and the flop comes K-9-5, your opponent with AK has no idea they're in terrible shape. This deception creates opportunities for massive payoffs. According to research from Two Plus Two Publishing, sets are among the most profitable hands in poker due to their combination of strength and disguise.
However, set mining isn't as simple as calling every raise with a pocket pair. The mathematics of set mining require careful consideration of implied odds, stack depths, and position. Get these factors wrong, and a play that should be profitable becomes a slow leak in your game.
The Mathematics of Set Mining
Odds of Flopping a Set
When you hold a pocket pair, you'll flop a set (or better) approximately 11.8% of the time—roughly 1 in 8.5 attempts, or 7.5-to-1 against. This means for every eight times you call a raise with a small pair, you'll hit a set on the flop only once.
Set Mining Probability Breakdown
- Flop exactly a set: 10.78%
- Flop quads: 0.24%
- Flop full house: 0.73%
- Total (set or better): 11.76% (~7.5:1 against)
- Miss the flop: 88.24%
This fundamental probability drives all set mining decisions. Since you're an underdog to hit, you need to win enough when you connect to compensate for all the times you miss. This is where implied odds become essential. Use our poker probability guide to understand the math behind these calculations.
Implied Odds Requirements
Implied odds measure how much you expect to win after the flop when you hit your hand. For set mining to be profitable, you need substantial implied odds because you're investing pre-flop knowing you'll usually miss.
The minimum implied odds for set mining is generally considered to be 10-to-1. More conservative players (and mathematically rigorous analysis from sources like PokerNews) suggest 15-to-1 implied odds for a comfortable profit margin. This means:
- If you call a 3bb raise, you need to win at least 30bb (conservative: 45bb) on average when you hit
- If you call a 4bb raise, you need to win at least 40bb (conservative: 60bb) on average when you hit
- If you call a 5bb raise, you need to win at least 50bb (conservative: 75bb) on average when you hit
Calculate your exact requirements using our implied odds calculator.
The Rule of 15
The Rule of 15 provides a quick shortcut for evaluating set mining spots: you need at least 15 times the amount you're calling in effective stacks for set mining to be profitable.
Rule of 15 Examples
| Raise Size | Min Effective Stack (15x) | Comfortable Stack (20x) |
|---|---|---|
| 2bb | 30bb | 40bb |
| 3bb | 45bb | 60bb |
| 4bb | 60bb | 80bb |
| 5bb | 75bb | 100bb |
| 6bb | 90bb | 120bb |
This rule helps you quickly determine if a set mining call is viable. At a 100bb table, if someone raises to 4bb and you hold 44, you have 25x the raise amount—plenty of room to set mine. But if they raise to 8bb, you only have 12.5x, which is below the threshold. Check stack depths with our SPR calculator to understand post-flop commitment levels.
Position and Set Mining
Position significantly impacts set mining profitability. As explained in our poker position guide, acting last gives you crucial information and control.
In Position (IP) Set Mining
Set mining in position is optimal because:
- Information advantage: You see what opponent does before deciding
- Pot control: When you miss, you can check behind to see free cards
- Value extraction: When you hit, you can call and raise effectively
- Floating opportunities: You can sometimes bluff with unimproved pairs on dry boards
Out of Position (OOP) Set Mining
Set mining out of position is more challenging:
- Facing c-bets: Opponents will bet into you—you must fold most misses immediately
- No free cards: You can't check behind when you miss
- Harder value extraction: When you hit, betting out looks suspicious; checking invites free cards
- Reduced implied odds: Opponents may not pay you off as much OOP
For OOP set mining, increase your stack depth requirements. Instead of 15x, aim for 20x or more to compensate for reduced implied odds and control.
Set Mining by Pair Strength
Not all pocket pairs are equal for set mining. Different pairs have different considerations based on their strength and playability when you miss the flop.
Small Pairs (22-55)
Strategy: Pure set mining hands with almost no post-flop playability when you miss.
- Fold to any aggression when you don't flop a set
- Require deepest stacks (15-20x pre-flop investment)
- Best in multi-way pots where you get better prices and more action when you hit
- Rarely 3-bet (too weak); prefer calling
- Avoid in 3-bet pots OOP—price is too high relative to implied odds
Medium Pairs (66-99)
Strategy: Set mining focus but with occasional post-flop value.
- Can occasionally win unimproved on very low boards (88 on 5-4-2)
- Some showdown value in small pots
- More flexible—can flat or sometimes 3-bet depending on position and opponent
- 99 specifically can play more like a premium pair in late position
- Can call c-bets on dry, low boards with intent to float
High Pairs (TT-QQ)
Strategy: Too strong for pure set mining—consider 3-betting.
- TT/JJ: Often better to 3-bet for value than flat call
- QQ: Almost always 3-bet; calling undervalues the hand
- When you do flat, you're not set mining—you're trapping with a premium hand
- Have significant post-flop value even without sets
- Can win big pots when overpairs hold on low boards
Learn more about pre-flop hand selection in our hand range visualizer tool.
Set Mining in Multi-Way Pots
Multi-way pots (three or more players) are excellent for set mining because:
Advantages of Multi-Way Set Mining
- Better immediate pot odds: More dead money in the pot
- Higher implied odds: Multiple opponents can pay you off
- More action when you hit: Multi-way means more likely someone has a hand
- Less protection needed: Opponents police each other
Multi-Way Considerations
However, multi-way pots also require adjustments:
- Reduced bluffing opportunities: You can't float with unimproved pairs—someone usually has something
- Set-over-set risk: More players means higher chance someone else flopped a set too
- Stronger value ranges: Players bet into multiple opponents with stronger hands
- Less control: Pot can get large quickly without your input
For multi-way pot strategy, see our multi-way pot strategy guide.
Post-Flop: When You Hit Your Set
Flopping a set is only half the battle. Maximizing value when you hit is crucial for set mining profitability.
Value Extraction Principles
- Don't slow-play wet boards: On boards with flush/straight draws, fast play to charge draws
- Slow-play dry boards: On K-7-2 rainbow, your opponent's range is capped—let them catch up
- Target top pair/overpairs: These hands will often stack off against your set
- Consider opponent tendencies: Against calling stations, bet big; against tight players, bet smaller to keep them in
Board Texture Matters
Set Playing Guidelines by Board Texture
| Board Type | Example | Strategy |
|---|---|---|
| Dry, Low | 7-4-2 rainbow | Slow-play more; let opponent bet or catch up |
| Dry, High | K-9-3 rainbow | Can slow-play; target AK/KQ with traps |
| Wet, Low | 8-7-5 two-tone | Fast play; charge draws immediately |
| Wet, High | Q-J-9 two-tone | Fast play; many draws and top pair combos |
| Paired | 9-9-4 | You have quads! Slow-play for value |
Use our board texture analyzer to evaluate flops and plan your lines.
Set-Over-Set Scenarios
Set-over-set situations are coolers—if you're at a standard 100bb table and you both flop sets, the money is going in. Don't try to outplay these spots. Accept that you'll occasionally lose with bottom set to top set. The key is recognizing when board runouts make it possible (two or more paired cards) and exercising caution in those rare situations.
Post-Flop: When You Miss Your Set
You'll miss your set 88% of the time. How you handle these situations determines whether set mining is profitable or a leak.
Default: Fold to Aggression
The standard play when you miss your set is to fold to any c-bet. Your pocket pair has minimal equity against opponent's continuing range, and calling just to see another card is typically a losing proposition. Don't get stubborn with 55 on K-J-8—fold and move on.
Exceptions: When to Continue
- Opponent checks: Take a free card in position; you might spike your set
- You have overcards: 99 on 7-5-2 can call small c-bets for showdown value
- Floating opportunities: In position on very dry boards against frequent c-bettors, you can call with intent to bluff later
- Additional draws: 66 on 8-7-4 has a gutshot—calling may be justified
Advanced players occasionally float with unimproved pairs, but this requires reads on opponent tendencies and is beyond pure set mining. See our floating guide for more on this tactic.
Set Mining: Cash Games vs Tournaments
Cash Game Set Mining
Cash games are ideal for set mining because:
- Deep stacks: Standard 100bb+ stacks provide excellent implied odds
- No ICM pressure: You can play purely for chip EV
- Consistent stack depths: You can reload; opponents stay deep
- Loose opponents: Many recreational players overplay top pair/overpairs
Tournament Set Mining
Tournament set mining requires more caution:
- Stack depth varies: As blinds increase, set mining becomes less viable
- ICM considerations: Near bubbles and pay jumps, survival value matters—avoid marginal spots
- M-Ratio matters: With low M, your chips are too precious for speculative calls
- Can't reload: Losing a set mining call can cripple your tournament
A general tournament guideline: set mine freely when you have 40+ big blinds. Between 25-40bb, be selective. Below 25bb, pocket pairs become either 3-bet/fold or simply fold—there's not enough depth to set mine. Learn more about stack-based strategy in our stack sizes strategy guide and use our M-Ratio calculator to evaluate tournament situations.
Common Set Mining Mistakes
| Mistake | Why It's Wrong | Correct Approach |
|---|---|---|
| Set mining with short stacks | Not enough implied odds to make up for misses | Apply Rule of 15; need 15x+ effective stacks |
| Calling too large raises | Implied odds requirement becomes impossible | Fold small pairs to 5bb+ raises at 100bb effective |
| Set mining against tight opponents | They won't pay you off when you hit | Target loose-aggressive and recreational players |
| Overplaying when you miss | Calling c-bets with no plan turns profit into loss | Default is fold; only continue with specific reads |
| Slow-playing on wet boards | Letting draws see free/cheap cards kills value | Fast-play sets on dynamic, draw-heavy boards |
| 3-betting small pairs | Bloats pot, reduces implied odds, face 4-bets | Small pairs are calling hands, not 3-bet hands |
| Ignoring position | OOP set mining is less profitable than IP | Require deeper stacks OOP; prefer IP set mining |
Practical Set Mining Examples
Example 1: Textbook Set Mining Spot
Situation: 100bb effective stacks. You hold 55 in the cutoff. UTG raises to 3bb, two players fold. Action on you.
Analysis: You have 100bb effective with a 3bb call. That's 33x the call size—well above the Rule of 15 threshold. UTG likely has a strong range, but that's actually good—big pairs and AK will pay you off handsomely when you flop a set. You're in position, which is ideal.
Action: Call. This is a perfect set mining opportunity. You're looking to flop a 5 and stack a hand like AA/KK/QQ. If you miss, fold to the c-bet and move on. Use our EV calculator to verify the profitability.
Example 2: Marginal Set Mining Situation
Situation: 50bb effective (opponent is short-stacked). You hold 77 in the small blind. Button raises to 2.5bb.
Analysis: With 50bb effective and 2.5bb to call, you have exactly 20x. This is at the borderline—acceptable but not ideal. You're OOP which hurts implied odds. However, the small raise size and being in a blind vs steal situation means opponent could have a wide range including many hands that pay off.
Action: This is close. Against a loose button, call. Against a tight button, fold or 3-bet. The short effective stack and OOP position make this marginal.
Example 3: Set Mining Gone Wrong
Situation: 100bb effective. You hold 22 UTG+1. UTG raises to 4bb, you call. CO 3-bets to 14bb, UTG folds.
Analysis: Now you face 10bb more to call into a pot of 22bb (14 + 4 + 4). You need to win 100bb+ when you hit (15x the call). But: (1) CO's 3-bet range is narrow—they may not pay off a set; (2) You're OOP against the 3-bettor; (3) SPR will be low, reducing post-flop maneuverability.
Action: Fold. The initial set mining call was fine, but calling the 3-bet doesn't have the implied odds. Don't compound the error. Analyze similar spots with our SPR calculator.
Tools for Set Mining Analysis
Use these calculators to analyze set mining situations:
- Implied Odds Calculator – Calculate required future winnings to justify set mining calls
- Pot Odds Calculator – Compare immediate pot odds with your equity
- SPR Calculator – Analyze stack-to-pot ratios for post-flop planning
- EV Calculator – Determine the expected value of set mining calls
- Hand Range Visualizer – Understand opponent ranges for implied odds estimation
- Variance Simulator – See how set mining variance affects your results
Key Takeaways
Set Mining Essentials
- You hit sets ~12% of the time – accept that you'll miss most flops
- Need 10-15x implied odds – can you win 10-15 times your call when you hit?
- Rule of 15: Need 15x your call in effective stacks to set mine
- Position matters: IP set mining is more profitable than OOP
- Small pairs (22-55): Pure set mining; fold when you miss
- Medium pairs (66-99): Set mining focus with occasional post-flop playability
- High pairs (TT-QQ): Too strong for set mining—consider 3-betting
- Fast-play wet boards, slow-play dry boards when you hit
- Fold to aggression when you miss – don't get stubborn
- In tournaments: 40+ bb for set mining; below that, be selective or fold
Responsible Gambling
Poker strategy concepts like set mining should be learned for educational purposes and entertainment. When playing for real money, always gamble responsibly within your means. Set mining involves variance—you'll have long stretches of missing sets before hitting big hands. Manage your bankroll appropriately and never play with money you can't afford to lose. For resources and support, visit the National Council on Problem Gambling or contact their helpline at 1-800-522-4700.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is set mining in poker?
Set mining is calling a raise pre-flop with a pocket pair (typically 22-99) with the primary goal of flopping three-of-a-kind (a set). Since you only hit a set roughly 12% of the time (about 7.5-to-1 against), set mining relies on implied odds—winning a large pot when you hit to offset the times you miss and fold.
What implied odds do you need for profitable set mining?
You need at least 10-to-1 implied odds for set mining to be profitable. This means if you call a 3bb raise, you should expect to win at least 30bb on average when you hit your set. More conservative estimates suggest 15-to-1 implied odds for a comfortable margin. This is why stack depth is crucial—you can't set mine profitably against short stacks.
What is the Rule of 15 in poker?
The Rule of 15 is a quick set mining guideline: you need at least 15 times the amount you're calling in effective stacks to set mine profitably. If the raise is 4bb, you need at least 60bb effective stacks. If stacks are 100bb and the raise is 10bb, you don't have 15x (150bb), so set mining becomes marginal.
Should you set mine with all pocket pairs?
Not all pocket pairs are equal for set mining. Small pairs (22-55) are purely set mining hands—you need deep stacks and good implied odds. Medium pairs (66-99) can sometimes win unimproved with showdown value. High pairs (TT-QQ) often have too much value to just set mine—consider 3-betting instead, especially in position.
What should you do when you miss your set?
When you miss your set (88% of the time), your default action is to fold to a continuation bet unless you have additional equity (overcards to the board, gutshot, backdoor draws). Occasionally, you can float in position with unimproved pairs if the board is very dry and you plan to bluff on later streets, but this is an advanced play.