♠ Card Games Encyclopedia

Tournament Overlay Calculator

Calculate whether a poker tournament offers an overlay—extra value added to the prize pool when the guarantee exceeds actual entries. Use this tool to identify +EV tournament opportunities where the poker room effectively subsidizes the prize pool, giving you an edge before cards are even dealt.

💰 Overlay Calculator

The advertised "GTD" prize pool amount

Total buy-in including rake (e.g., $100+$9)

The portion that goes to the house (not prize pool)

Number of players registered (check late reg!)

OVERLAY DETECTED!
$1,500
Prize Pool vs Guarantee
0% Break-even (100%) 200%+
Prize Pool from Entries
$8,500
Overlay Percentage
+17.6%
Effective Rake
0%
Your Equity Bonus
$17.65
Entries to Break Even
100
Net Buy-in (Prize Pool)
$100
Calculation Value
Net buy-in per player $109 - $9 = $100
Prize pool from entries 85 × $100 = $8,500
Overlay calculation $10,000 - $8,500 = $1,500
Overlay per player $1,500 ÷ 85 = $17.65
Formula: Overlay = Guarantee - (Entries × (Buy-in - Rake))

💡 Strategic Insight

This tournament has a significant overlay! With 15% extra value added to the prize pool, you're effectively playing a tournament with negative rake. This is excellent value for any skill level.

Understanding Tournament Overlays

A tournament overlay is one of the most valuable situations in poker. It occurs when a poker room guarantees a prize pool that exceeds what players actually contribute through buy-ins. The room must make up the difference, effectively adding free money to the prize pool that all players compete for. Understanding overlays is essential for tournament selection and maximizing your expected value.

Quick Example: A $10,000 guaranteed tournament with a $100+$9 buy-in needs 100 entries to meet the guarantee. If only 85 players register, the poker room adds $1,500 (the overlay) to reach the $10,000 guarantee. Every player gets a piece of this free money proportional to their chip stack equity.

Why Overlays Matter

📈 Increased Expected Value

Overlays directly increase your ROI. In a tournament with 15% overlay, you're effectively playing a tournament with negative rake—something that doesn't exist in normal poker.

⚖️ Equalizes the Field

Overlays help offset skill disadvantages. Recreational players benefit from the extra prize pool equity, making tournaments more attractive for all skill levels.

🎯 Tournament Selection Edge

Consistently finding overlays is a form of table selection for tournaments. Professionals actively seek overlay opportunities as part of their volume strategy.

💰 Rake Reduction

Overlays can completely negate the rake or even create "negative rake" scenarios. This dramatically improves long-term profitability for regular tournament players.

How Overlays Affect Your ROI

The impact of overlays on Return on Investment (ROI) is mathematically straightforward. According to research published by the PokerStrategy community, tournament selection—including finding overlays—can add 10-20% to a player's overall ROI. The relationship between overlay percentage and effective rake demonstrates this clearly:

Overlay % Effective Rake Impact on ROI Assessment
0% (No overlay) Full rake (~9%) Baseline Standard tournament
5% ~4% effective +5% ROI Good value
10% 0% (rake-free) +10% ROI Excellent value
20% -10% (negative!) +20% ROI Outstanding value
50%+ Massive negative +50%+ ROI Rare, always play

When Do Overlays Occur?

Understanding when overlays typically happen helps you plan your tournament schedule strategically. The World Series of Poker and other major operators sometimes misjudge demand, creating overlay opportunities. Common scenarios include:

  • New tournament series launches: Operators often set aggressive guarantees to build player interest, resulting in overlays until the series gains traction
  • Off-peak hours: Weekday mornings, late nights, and early morning tournaments frequently have lower attendance than guarantees anticipate
  • Competing events: When a major poker series or live event runs, online tournaments often see reduced attendance while maintaining their guarantees
  • Seasonal patterns: Summer months (especially during WSOP) and holiday periods often create overlay opportunities online
  • Higher buy-in events: More expensive tournaments sometimes struggle to fill, creating significant overlays on larger guarantees

Finding Overlay Tournaments

Professional tournament players develop systems for identifying overlay opportunities before late registration closes. According to insights from Card Player Magazine, successful overlay hunting requires monitoring multiple sites and understanding registration patterns:

🔍 Monitor Late Registration

The best time to assess overlays is 30-60 minutes before late registration closes. Use this calculator to determine if entering is +EV based on current entries.

📊 Track Historical Data

Note which tournaments consistently overlay. Patterns emerge—certain time slots, buy-in levels, or tournament types regularly fail to meet guarantees.

📱 Use Alerts

Some poker tracking tools and communities share overlay alerts. Following tournament-focused forums like Two Plus Two can help identify opportunities.

⏰ Time Zone Arbitrage

Tournaments scheduled during your region's off-peak hours (but designed for other regions) often overlay. European morning events on US sites frequently have overlays.

Overlay Hunting Strategy

The National Council on Problem Gambling reminds players that while seeking value is sensible, gambling should always remain within your means. That said, from a purely strategic perspective, overlay hunting involves several key considerations tied to bankroll management:

  • ROI threshold: Calculate your minimum overlay percentage to justify playing a tournament outside your normal schedule
  • Opportunity cost: Consider whether an overlay tournament is better than your regular games—a 5% overlay might not justify playing an unfamiliar format
  • Field composition: Overlay tournaments sometimes attract more recreational players (also seeking value), potentially creating softer fields
  • Variance considerations: Use the variance simulator to understand how overlay tournaments affect your long-term results
  • ICM implications: Remember that overlay value is distributed based on chip equity—use the ICM calculator to understand how this affects final table decisions

Related Tools

Combine overlay analysis with these complementary calculators to optimize your tournament strategy:

Frequently Asked Questions

What is a tournament overlay in poker? +
A tournament overlay occurs when the guaranteed prize pool advertised by the poker room exceeds the actual prize pool generated by player buy-ins. The poker room must make up the difference from their own funds, creating extra value for all participating players. For example, if a $10,000 GTD tournament only generates $8,000 from entries, the $2,000 overlay is free money added to the prize pool.
How do I calculate tournament overlay? +
The formula is: Overlay = Guarantee - (Entries × Net Buy-in), where Net Buy-in = Total Buy-in - Rake. For example, with a $10,000 guarantee, $109 buy-in ($100+$9 rake), and 85 entries: Overlay = $10,000 - (85 × $100) = $10,000 - $8,500 = $1,500 overlay.
Why are overlay tournaments profitable? +
Overlay tournaments are profitable because the poker room essentially subsidizes the prize pool. Every player receives a proportional share of this "free money" based on their chip stack equity. A 15% overlay effectively gives you 15% more expected value than a standard tournament with the same field, and can even create negative effective rake where the room is paying you to play.
When do tournament overlays typically occur? +
Overlays commonly occur during: new tournament series launches (aggressive guarantees to build interest), off-peak hours (weekday mornings, late nights), when competing with major live series, holiday periods, and for higher buy-in events that struggle to fill. Track patterns on your preferred sites to identify recurring overlay opportunities.
Should I always play overlay tournaments? +
Not necessarily. Consider: (1) whether the overlay is large enough to justify playing outside your schedule, (2) the format—an unfamiliar game type might negate overlay value, (3) opportunity cost vs your regular games, (4) bankroll constraints, and (5) field composition. Generally, overlays above 10% warrant serious consideration for most tournament players.
How does overlay affect my personal equity bonus? +
Your equity bonus equals the overlay divided by the number of entries. With a $1,500 overlay and 85 entries, each player receives approximately $17.65 in expected additional prize money. This bonus is distributed based on chip equity—players who accumulate more chips capture more of the overlay value throughout the tournament.

Responsible Tournament Selection

While seeking overlay value is mathematically sound, remember that poker tournaments are still gambling with inherent variance. The National Council on Problem Gambling provides resources for anyone concerned about their gambling habits. Always play within your means, maintain proper mental game discipline, and view overlay hunting as one component of a broader, sustainable tournament strategy.