Baccarat Odds Calculator
This calculator helps you understand the exact probabilities, house edges, and expected values for all baccarat bets. Whether you're learning about baccarat rules or analyzing different betting options, this tool provides the mathematical foundation for understanding why Banker is the best bet and why patterns don't predict future outcomes.
Select Bet Type
Complete Odds Comparison
| Bet Type | Payout | Probability | House Edge | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Banker (5% commission) | 0.95:1 | 45.86% | 1.06% | ★★★★★ |
| Player | 1:1 | 44.62% | 1.24% | ★★★★☆ |
| Tie (8:1) | 8:1 | 9.52% | 14.36% | ★☆☆☆☆ |
| Tie (9:1) | 9:1 | 9.52% | 4.84% | ★★☆☆☆ |
| Commission-Free Banker | 1:1 (0.5:1 on 6) | 45.86% | 1.46% | ★★★★☆ |
Side Bets Analysis
Many casinos offer additional side bets in baccarat. While these have higher payouts, they come with significantly higher house edges. The American Gaming Association notes that side bets are designed for entertainment rather than serious play.
Pattern Tracker (Educational)
Track hand results to see how patterns develop. This tool demonstrates a crucial mathematical truth: past results do not influence future outcomes in properly shuffled baccarat.
Long-Term Expected Results
This simulation shows the mathematical reality of baccarat over extended play. While short-term variance can produce winning sessions, the house edge inevitably grinds down bankrolls over time. For comparison, our Expected Value Calculator can help you analyze similar probabilistic decisions in poker contexts.
Understanding Baccarat Mathematics
Baccarat probabilities are derived from combinatorial analysis of all possible card distributions from an 8-deck shoe. The calculations account for the fixed third-card rules that govern when Player and Banker draw additional cards. Research from the UNLV Center for Gaming Research provides extensive mathematical analysis of casino game probabilities.
Why Banker Has the Edge
The Banker hand acts second, knowing the Player's total and third card (if drawn) before deciding whether to draw. This positional advantage, governed by the complex third-card rules, creates a 1.36% probability edge for Banker. The 5% commission on Banker wins compensates the casino for this advantage, reducing but not eliminating Banker's superiority.
The Tie Bet Trap
The Tie bet appears attractive with its 8:1 or 9:1 payout, but mathematics reveals it as the worst bet on the table. Ties occur approximately 9.52% of the time—if they occurred 11.1% of the time, an 8:1 payout would be fair. The gap between true probability and payout creates the massive 14.36% house edge. For perspective, this is roughly 13 times worse than betting on Banker.
Commission-Free Baccarat Explained
Commission-free or "EZ Baccarat" eliminates the 5% commission on Banker wins but typically pays only 1:2 (half your bet) when Banker wins with a three-card total of 6. This rule change increases the house edge to approximately 1.46%—still good by casino standards, but 40% higher than standard Banker's 1.06% edge.
Optimal Baccarat Strategy
Unlike poker or blackjack where strategy decisions significantly impact outcomes, baccarat strategy is simple: always bet Banker. This recommendation applies regardless of previous results, perceived patterns, or superstitions. The mathematics are unambiguous—Banker has the lowest house edge.
- Always prefer Banker bets – 1.06% house edge is the best available option
- Player bets are acceptable – 1.24% edge is still good; choose Player if you dislike commission tracking
- Never bet Tie – 14.36% house edge makes this bet mathematical suicide
- Avoid all side bets – Higher payouts don't compensate for dramatically worse odds
- Ignore patterns – Previous results don't influence future outcomes
For more complex decision-making where skill matters, explore our poker strategy guides including poker probability and mathematics and value betting principles.
Related Casino Card Games
If you enjoy baccarat's simplicity, consider exploring other casino card games with their own mathematical characteristics:
- Blackjack – Lower house edge (0.5% with basic strategy) but requires learning optimal play decisions. Our Blackjack Strategy Calculator can help you learn.
- Casino War – Even simpler than baccarat with straightforward high-card-wins mechanics
- Three Card Poker – Combines house game structure with poker hand rankings. Use our Three Card Poker Calculator to analyze odds and learn the Q-6-4 strategy.
- Andar Bahar – Traditional Indian card game with near 50/50 betting like baccarat
Frequently Asked Questions
Responsible Gaming Reminder
Baccarat is designed with a mathematical edge favoring the casino. No betting system, pattern recognition, or strategy can overcome this edge in the long run. Use this calculator to understand the mathematics, set realistic expectations, and treat baccarat as entertainment with a cost—not an investment opportunity.
If you find yourself chasing losses, betting more than planned, or experiencing stress over gambling outcomes, seek help through the National Council on Problem Gambling (1-800-522-4700).